Immigration Changes the Demography of a Nation


Immigration was the key issue in both the Brexit referendum and Trump’s election, and in Australia, immigration is always a policy battleground. One Nation has won senate seats largely due to their anti-mass-immigration stance. One of the recurring characterisations of the supporters of Brexit, Donald Trump and Pauline Hanson is that they are a backward and parochial lot. Commentators often parrot the talking point that these people have been left behind by modern society, culture and the economy, and are lashing out in a xenophobic, persecution-complex-inspired upraised middle finger to the political establishment. This seems a convenient way to easily dismiss the issues and grievances of these voters as overly emotional paranoia.

The ABS did a population projection in 2013, which projected changes in Australia’s population from 2012 through to 2101. The projection contained three different “series”; these are essentially three different projections which are varied by making different assumptions about fertility, immigration, life expectancy etc.The ABS noted that, “Series B largely reflects current trends in fertility, life expectancy at birth and NOM [Net overseas migration]”

Seeking to find how the net overseas migration would affect the population over the length of the projection, I compared Series B which I termed the “Base Case” against the same set of assumptions except that net overseas migration is nil. Subtracting the population of the “Net overseas migration” data from the base case data allows you to isolate the amount of the population that is an immigrant to the country after 2012 or descended from the aforementioned post-2012 immigrants. I have termed anyone in the country by 2012 a “2012 native” for ease.

Immigration can transform a country, and it’s somewhat shocking to contemplate that on the current immigration, life expectancy and fertility trends that the ABS expects to occur the following is expected:

  • In 2022, more than 10% of people in the country will have arrived or be descended from people who arrived in Australia after 2012.
  • It hits 20% by 2033, 30% by 2045 and 50% by 2076.

These newly arrived “Australians” are a significant presence almost instantly, due to the size and rapid growth of their numbers. They can vote, work and consume like any other Australian citizen, and as an Australian citizen have a right to influence Australia politically and culturally. It is certainly not baseless paranoia to posit that immigration at present is rapidly changing the demography of the country, and if the mainstream parties in Australia are not able to explain and evidence how immigration at this rate benefits Australians, then they should not be surprised to see One Nation and other anti-immigration parties continue to grow in prominence.

Photo by RubyGoes

  • Möwe

    When I as in Sydney, I saw several menus outside restaurants in a couple of suburbs which I could not understand, as they were not in English, but in Farsi and Chinese. Elsewhere I saw a job advertisement written entirely in Korean, except for the title (which is how I know it was a job advert). I was looking for a job at the time. Meanwhile down the library there were adverts in the ‘What’s On’ leaflet in Mandarin, with no translation.* So: I can understand less than I could before, and am eligible for fewer jobs. How is this making the country better exactly? I wrote to my local MP about it. He wrote back. What do you expect he said? If you write to a turkey, expect plenty of fluff and walking on eggshells.

    I had a job in a factory for a little while in an outer suburb of Sydney. This was a few years ago. They employed several backpackers, whom I was friendly with. One of them, a Korean fella, said to me that he liked working in that suburb, as it seemed more like real Australia. “There are too many Asians in the CBD.” Fair enough. Working holidaymakers, many of them, anyway, come here to experience a foreign culture. I am sure many Australians would be pretty annoyed if they flew off to a village in say, Mongolia, for a breathtaking cultural experience and it turned out to be full of Aussies.

    People have a right to live in a place where there are other who are like them, who share their values and to whom they can speak equally, in English rather than simplified English or ‘Globish’. IWhy not? You work hard during the day, life’s short and sadness is always just around the corner. It’s not wicked at all to want a little of that kind of comfort, and it entirely explains ethnic ghettos in Sydney and Melbourne, like Chinatown. No wonder, as you say, One Nation is on the rise.

    Having said that, and in the interests of being balanced, there also seem to be plenty of migrants who adapt to Australian life better and more joyfully than others. There’s an African bloke where I’m working. He works as a cleaner. He studies English during the day and is very pleased to be here.

    * I asked the library to provide a translation in the ‘What’s On’ leaflet in the future, and they said they’d do it. But the classes and activities that were advertised were for Chinese speakers only. Let’s celebrate diversity separately, I guess?

    • Deplorable Steve

      Celebrating diversity through exclusion and conformity…

    • Karen Dwyer

      “If you write to a turkey, expect plenty of fluff and walking on eggshells.”

      Not sure if that’s original or not, but either way, I’m shamelessly pinching it 😉

    • I lived in Eastwood,Sydney, circa 2000.
      Eastwood then was just your ordinary Aussie suburb.

      Eastwood character rapidly changed to predominantly Chinese/Korean over a space of 20 years.
      Shops run by white Australians progressively shut down, as their mainly white ethnicity customers gradually got forced out.
      Every shop vacancy that came up was leased by Chinese or Koreans and the Eastwood CBD is now pretty much exclusively catering to, and run by Asians,for Asians.

      There used to be a Mc Donalds in Eastwood but it closed down due to lack of custom and became a Noodle Restaurant.
      There are a couple of coffee shops still catering to Westerners, but that’s it.
      The CBD is markedly dirtier and rundown, not much pride is exhibited by this new wave of shopkeepers.
      One side of Eastwood,divided neatly by the rail line is Korean, the other side is Chinese.
      Lots of seedy massage parlours and Dollar shops and asian restaurants,a few Realtors, that’s it.
      Crime has increased markedly, but the police have trouble getting Asian shopkeepers to speak up, due to cultural “sensitivities”. Lots of muggings.

      House properties have skyrocketed as a greater influx of cashed up mainland Chinese flood the area and Caucasians move out of the suburb.
      The local primary school has about 90% of their kids being from Korea/China, with maybe a few Indian kids.

      So, not much “Diversity”…. and this suburb is mirrored many times around Sydney with different ethnicities creating new urban ghettoes.
      In the long run, it can’t be beneficial or good for our Social fabric to have increasing numbers of no go areas.

      “Diversity” … me, means : Less White People.

    • Bikinis not Burkas

      Don’t worry about the Chinese, they don’t carry books that tell them to kill you when their numbers are large enough!
      Reliance of the Traveller.

      • Möwe

        Quite right, BnB.

        In other pro-Asian developments, I am very pleased about the part that Chinese parents played in last week getting rid of the teaching of gender theory in NSW schools, thanks to their petition. Good on them! The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

      • Copyright101

        So if Australia turns into China thats fine as long as they’re not Muslims?

        Why are we supposed to care what religion is practiced by the racial aliens that replace our people?

        • Thank you Copyright101 for introducing me to this (?alt-lite/ ?alt-right) website. I never knew it even existed and it’s close to home!