The Townsville floods were supposed to be someone else’s problem

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Australia has been coping with relentless heat across the entire continent as well as pouring rain and floods in the Far North. Of course, this has generated much media coverage here in Europe. In Holland where I live, lately people have begun commenting to me on the present awful state of affairs in my home country as regards the climate. My standard response is to guffaw inappropriately, roll my eyes, and declare that what Australia is going through right now is simply called summer. It happens a lot over there, like every 9 months or so.

My interlocutors inevitably express surprise at my declaration that nothing special is happening right now down under in Australia. If they persist I regale them with some of the maximum temperatures that I labored under while working in mining exploration in the Western Australian desert. Or the time when I was in high school in the mid 80s when we had more than 90 days in a row where the daytime temperature never got below 35 degrees Celsius. Without air conditioning.

The one unusual happening in this Australian summer has been the extent of the monsoon flooding in the Far North city of Townsville, which is officially the most boring city in Australia, if not the entire world. The flooding itself is somewhat unremarkable as that part of the world tends to flood on a regular basis, which is a direct result of an average rainfall that is measured in meters. What is unusual is the extent of the destruction, with tens of thousands of homes going underwater. As someone who lived in Cairns for 5 years, I know that part of the world quite well, and such devastation is very out of the ordinary.

Particularly for Townsville seeing as the city is rather steep and hilly. I had to stay in Townsville on numerous occasions for work and my abode of choice was a cute B&B in a big old colonial style house up on one of the main hills. To call the area steep would be like saying that Everest seems fairly high. So how did this area flood?

Townsville flood maps reviewed as more homes go under.

From the Australian.

On the map the large white part are the hills around which the city of Townsville was built. They built it there all those years ago because the entire area is prone to flooding. But the expansion of the city in recent years has seen the local council giving approval for entire suburbs that are literally built on a flood plain in a monsoonal climate. How could the council possibly have given permission for developers to build there?

Why, they used computer models of course. Now where have we heard of climate computer models before …?

Local Government Associa­tion of Queensland chief executive Greg Hallam said Towns­ville’s flood maps relied on “exhaustive modelling of every possible scenario”, looking at variable­s such as rainfall and artificia­l structures.

“We’re not God. We don’t have supreme knowledge. We only have the best science, the best knowledge we can have,” he said. “We now know with the (dam) gates fully open … what will flood and what won’t, so there will be a new set of flood maps prod­uced out of this event.”

Mr Hallam said Townsville’s maps were prepared using a “Monte Carlo” risk analysis, which models the likelihood of different outcomes in hard-to-predict situations, as recommen­d­ed in 2012 by experts attache­d to the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry.

They call anything science these days. It’s not science, it’s utter crap, although now that means essentially the same thing. They set up their computer models to give them the answer which their clients, in this case the council and the developers, wanted to have and were paying money to get. That’s what science is now; the client pays the money, gets their model, and hey presto, science!

The next time some climate change berk wheels out the old computer model argument, feel free to use this example to rub his face in it. Because it turns out that these models are simply that; models. And if you go by their own words when it all goes to crap, they’re not God. Funny that, I never thought they were.

And another thing; a one in a hundred year flood means that you will get one of those floods at least once every hundred years. But obviously when the “scientists” come up with their models, their predictions are assuming that the hundred year event will happen in a hundred years from today, which makes it somebody else’s problem.

Which is the same outcome for climate change. Once they’ve finally destroyed our industry and electrical system in the name of Gaia hopefully we’ll all be dead, or at least that’s how their reasoning goes.

This article was originally published at https://pushingrubberdownhill.com/, where Adam Piggott publishes regularly and brilliantly. You can purchase Adam’s books here.

  • Stiffbastard

    Climate change. Making the data fit the model since the invention of the rain dance.

  • I lived in Townsville twice during the eighties and nineties. Two of my kids were born there – one died there. I founded two different special schools there. It’s not a “boring” city. The fact that’s it’s a garrison town makes it interesting, as the ADF gets involved in the community.
    There is some truth in the assertion that developers, and the councils who allowed them to open up flood prone areas are responsible for the damage, but the developers and the council aren’t responsible for the deluge, which is unprecedented. Unlike Ingham, Cairns and Proserpine, Townsville is the “dry tropics”.
    Our child that died was killed by a congenital deformity – an aneurism. I was sprayed by Agent Orange whilst serving in Vietnam. The special school I opened in 1987 had a disproportionate number of kids with congenital deformities such as spina bifida and talipes. They were all fathered by Vietnam veterans. Many studies have indicated a link.
    When there is so little disregard for the environment that dioxin is sprayed on the landscape killing initially vegetation, and eventually children, the notion that similar disregard helps to precipitate climate change is not far fetched. Then, of course, there’s the science….

    • Stiffbastard

      Of course there’s science. Science says that correlation does not equal causation. There may be multiple variables in the equation. It’s not always as simple as a+b=c. Sometimes it’s a little more complex; such as y” + y’ + y = 0.

      Unfortunately the religious nutters at the church of climate change only entertain the dogmatic idea that a+b=c. Suggesting that it might be something else is considered heresy and hey, of course, that’s just not science…

    • Doc79

      It may regarded as ‘dry’ tropics when compared to its neighbouring towns but monsoon weather systems could give two shits what Townsville is labelled.

      It is a large catchment basin hemmed in by the ranges to the west of the town. There are 4 major rivers- Haughton, Ross, Bohle and Black- in the immediate area and many creeks all formed by rainwater running off the large plains.

    • Bucky Redux

      “Science” has transformed into “Scientism”.
      We are living in a new Dark Age, the light of true science has been extinguished.
      Anyone in the current year that does not believe that “the science is settled” is a heretic, according to the Science is God groupies.

  • Taipan

    David Hiscox:

    My goal here at The XYZ is not to help make Australia a country where hardworking and high-IQ migrants can enjoy freedom and democracy. There is absolutely no point in supporting a supposedly “conservative” platform if it just leads to white genocide anyway. My goal is to secure the existence of our people, and a future for white children and our nation. I am here to uncuck my British and European brothers, and indeed myself.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/959f48d6952090d13109ee13f20192758b9d185b0d6e46083aeaf4fa9e02e427.gif

  • fimbulwinter

    Ahahaha haha! Scientific computer models! Must be the same magic simulations that found that miracle anti-aging weight loss cream, found MH370 (and then lost again) and then realized the best way to combat over population is to flood a country with the fastest breeding and least productive race – Africans. Bravo science!

    To all the fuckwit alarmists out there, it’s called summer. Australia has been going through it every year for thousands of years.

  • Bucky Redux

    In better days, days where people had more common sense, homes in Qld were raised on high stilts, with breezeways and wide verandahs. Being raised at least 2 metres on their stilts, floods were less of an issue.
    Those magnificent climate smart old “Queenslander” homes, designed for the vagaries of tropical weather.
    Mostly gone now, replaced with ugly low rise heatsink brick McMansions or Villas that are submerged at the first sign of floods.
    If you live in North Queensland, cyclonic weather and floods are part of the deal.
    People most surprised by Queensland weather are usually Southerners who have relocated there for a better life-style.

    Australia, the land of floods, raging bushfires, scorching red deserts and withering drought, deadly spiders and snakes, slithering crocodiles and stinging jellyfish and hungry sharks: I wouldn’t live anywhere else !

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/92b971002fc2f18f2586c05cdfd10c18c95b36f4a0c2e3ea661f9b73cee7ce96.jpg

  • We’ll all be rooned.

    • Bucky Redux

      When we are rooned, I hope that the rooination is captured for posterity on Fillum, so that future Aussie generations of rag-headed transgender choco skinned Mosque loving Muslims can see what long gone, genocided Whitey endured in the 21st Century.

      • Stiffbastard

        They didn’t document the Armenian genocide. What makes you think they’d document a white genocide?

        • Larry Larkin

          So they can gloat.

    • Jai_Normosone

      … said Hanrahan 🙂

  • thegentlemantroll

    To add to the marvels of the clever country, a post-fire audit this week found 300+ new apartment buildings in Melbourne have highly flammable exterior cladding. The things a property developer will do for a buck.